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COVID-19 Pandemic Update: Apply Mathematical Approach To Stop Spread in KANO.. Prof. Gumel Arizona State University USA.

May 3, 2020
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COVID-19 Pandemic Update: Apply Mathematical Approach To Stop Spread in KANO.. Prof. Gumel Arizona State University USA.
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An extract from the publication of Professor Abba B. Gumel a Foundation Professor of Mathematics at Arizona State
University, USA. He is also a Fellow of both the Nigerian Academy of Science (FAS) and the
African Academy of Sciences (FAAS).

All views reserved…

“Now we come to the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa (with
over 200 million citizens). The Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) reports the first
confirmed COVID-19 case in Nigeria on February 27, 2020. As of April 29, 2020, data from the
website of the NCDC shows that Nigeria has recorded 1,278(now 2388 on 3-05-2020 and counting) confirmed cases and 51 (now 85+) deaths. The
data showed that Lagos State currently has 718 (now 1068 on 3-05-2020 and counting) active cases and recorded (30+ deaths and counting) and the new
epicenter, Kano State, has 313 reported cases and over 50 residents of the state have died of COVID-19. Even if these seemingly grossly under-reported COVID-19 case and mortality numbers are
to be believed for a second, the fact that the ancient city of Kano has over 313 confirmed cases,
and considering its sheer population size (of over 10 million residents) and highly dense nature,
for instance, suggests a potentially catastrophic COVID-19 outcome for the city and the rest of
Kano state (and, perhaps, the neighboring environs).
There are two obvious reasons to
substantiate my claim. The first is that Kano city is like New York city in terms of population
size and population density. The second is that, in the absence of serious public health
interventions (particularly strict social-distancing protocols and other measures for reducing
community transmission), the pandemic is going to grow in an exponential manner, as we saw in
New York city and the rest of the state of New York. The Kano State Government has finally
acknowledged, on April 27, 2020, the “mysterious deaths” of over 640 inhabitants. This
prompted President Buhari to order a complete lockdown of the state the following day. A very
laudable move.

Kano city is a major commercial hub. In fact, it has historically been the commercial capital of
the whole of West Africa. It is also the nucleus and focal point of Nigeria’s north. It is home
to all the nationalities/ethnicities within the north (and the south too). If Kano catches fire (i.e.,
if it is ravaged by COVID-19), so will the rest of the North….and, by extension, the rest of the
Nigerian nation. Sadly, at the height of this COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Kano
State, in its infinite wisdom, decided to “repatriate” Nigerian citizens (kids partaking in the
almajiri system) back to their “state of origin”. First, it really is amazing how this kind of
lawlessness can be tolerated in a federal system. How can any citizen (regardless of age or
socio-economic status) be treated as a foreigner in his/her own country? Second, these kids that
were “repatriated” from Kano city back to their “state of origin” may have been infected with
COVID-19, thereby silently starting COVID-19 outbreaks in the locations they were forcibly re-located to by the lawless Kano State government.

This irresponsible action of the Kano State government, while manifestly illegal, could contribute in exporting COVID-19 to other
neighbouring states and communities. No state government has the right to repatriate any
citizen. This is illegal, and the Nigerian (federal) government must hold the lawless KNSG
accountable… otherwise, our citizenship means next to nothing (since a state government or
Governor can suspend it at will).

This lawlessness cannot be tolerated. This now gives me
perfect time to Segway to something a lot more pleasant. Mathematics. The science of precision…

See Full Publication at.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abba_Gumel?wprov=sfla1

Please copy and paste in URL.

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